Five Forces Analysis, Ventura County Stem Education and Biopharma Cluster (2020)
INTRODUCTION
Ventura County’s STEM-based cluster has a global reach. The long-term and collaborative county-wide effort to expand learning opportunities in STEM education has ignited the interest of learners from pre-Kindergarten through post-secondary levels. The strategic approach will ensure that Ventura expands and deepens its capability to serve the growing STEM industry with well-versed professionals and highly-qualified technicians.
The comprehensive partnership that includes astute professionals from the education domain, accomplished volunteers from private industry, specialists in the defense realm, and experienced members of non-profit groups has set the conditions to sustain a forward-leaning and highly-scalable STEM footprint.
This report reviews the education industry, trends in post-secondary education enrollments, the effects on college enrollment post-2008 recession, and takes a peek into industry-wide reaction to the shock induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Then it looks at the future of work, STEM industry employment numbers, and seeks to determine where personnel surpluses exist and where shortages linger.
The final section suggests actions that capitalize on existing strengths while simultaneously addressing areas to enhance the competitive posture within the Ventura County STEM ecosystem. With a perpetual early-warning program, Ventura County’s STEM posture will be able to leapfrog industry trends, withstand biological intrusions, and endure economic and political disruptions.
NATIONAL COLLEGE ENROLLMENT BY 2026
Nathan Grawe, an economist at Carleton College in Minnesota, predicted that “the college-going population will drop by 15% between 2025–2029.” After the 2008 crisis, “young people viewed that economic uncertainty as a cause for reducing fertility.” As a result of the lower birth rate, by 2026 there will be “fewer kids reaching college-going age.”
Historically, economists during the 1980s “predicted a similar drop in college enrollments…following the baby boom generation.” But instead of declining, enrollments increased when more “women started going to college”, and “even older Americans went back to school.”
Locally, this could severely affect Ventura College which has experienced an annual decline in enrollment since 2009. Moorpark’s Fall 2018 Institutional Effectiveness Report shows that over the nextfive years, there will be an “8% decrease in residents between the ages of 15 and 24.” Furthermore, Ventura County has experienced a 2.5% decline in public school enrollment over the last 11 years (2007–2018).”
In its Spring 2019 Enrollment Summary that covered Spring 2018 — Spring 2019 period, VCCCD reported that it experienced a 1.3% drop in district-wide enrollment for a total decline of 369 students. Ventura College bore the brunt of the decline with 285 less students. As a whole, VCCCD enrolled 29,397 students in 2017 compared to only 28,343 students in 2019.
HOW THE 2008 RECESSION AFFECTED NATIONAL COLLEGE ENROLLMENT
The Hechinger Report found that “higher education runs in the opposite direction of the economy.” To improve job prospects, the unemployed go back to school to learn new skills, or improve existing skill sets. However, there was an 18-month lag in enrollments when students waited until unemployment benefits were exhausted, or when they faced difficulties in finding a job.
The 2009 Recovery Act raised the amount of Pell Grants to low-income students and broadened the eligibility criteria. However, overall funding for education decreased which forced the states to “cut funds to public colleges just as enrollments surged.”
In order to compensate, public schools raised tuition. However, as the economy improved, “many returned to work without degrees.” Completion rates “declined for students who enrolled in 2008, 2009, and 2010.” The decline in the completion rates negatively affects the learner, the education industry, and the strength of the local economy.
COVID-19 AND THE CARES ACT
The Education Trust (edtrust.org) listed three coronavirus relief bills that Congress recently passed. At $2 trillion, it is the largest stimulus bill in US history.
- $30.75B State Stabilization Fund
a. $13.5B for K-12; $14.25B for higher education
b. $3B issued to governors for use at their discretion for either K-12 or higher education.
2. Preschool, Elementary and Secondary Education
a. Increased federal waiver authority through the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (ESEA).
b. No requirement for annual assessments, or new accountability ratings. Greater flexibility for Title 1 programs. Removes 15% limit on technology purchases.
c. Specific Programs:
i. Headstart — $750M; Child Care — $3.5B for Child Care and Development Block Grant
ii. Community Service Block Grant: $1B
iii. Runaway and Homeless Youth: $25M to states
iv. Homeless Assistance Grants: $4B
v. Pandemic EBT: free or reduced-price lunch reimbursement.
3. Higher Education
a. Suspends student loan payments until 9/30, interest free; halts involuntary collection and wage garnishments
b. Higher Education Act (HEA) Waivers- allows schools to use Federal Work-Study and Federal Education Opportunity Grant (FSEOG) money as emergency aid.
RECENT EDUCATION TRENDS DUE TO COVID-19
1. Community college free online training.
Maine “removed restrictions on certain state job-training funds (at community colleges) to ‘rapidly provide’ free online training to workers.” The directive “suspends several restrictions” on “training grants to Maine employers.” The Maine community college system “may suspend residency and enrollment eligibility requirements.”
2. Information Technology and movement toward telework.
CompTIA, will “offer its IT Fundamentals e-learning program for free to displaced workers, students and others seeking opportunities” in the IT field.
3. WWII-era training program for rapid change.
According to the Training Within Industry (TWI) Institute, a program with “roots” in the War Manpower Commission, that “focuses on building people skills at the frontline (with an emphasis on agility and continuous improvement) became the centerpiece of the training for Toyota, Coca-Cola, Boeing, BMW, Lego and Merck.”
Recently, the US government has “commissioned TWI Institute to help manufacturers create essential products for disease prevention efforts, to train retirees and volunteers to support hospital staffing needs.”
THE FUTURE OF WORK
The Institute for the Future in its “Future Work Skills — 2020” report for the University of Phoenix Research Institute lists the following conditions that will “reshape the future landscape.”
- Extreme longevity — change the “nature of career and learning.”
a. By 2025, “the number of Americans over 60 will increase by 70%.” “Multiple careers will be commonplace” and “lifelong learning” will increase.
b. The estimated 2019 Ventura County population is 846,006, of which 15.6% or 131,976 persons are over the age of 65. In 2017, the Ventura County Public Health estimated that by 2060, 23.7% of the population will be over the age of 65.
2. Rise of smart machines and systems — “out of rote, repetitive tasks.”
a. Smart machines as “collaborators used to “augment and extend” human capabilities.
3. Computational world — the world as “a programmable system.”
a. “Everything is programmable” era.
b. Increase in modeling of macro-level and micro-level (real-time) planning.
4. New media ecology — “new media literacies beyond text.”
a. New ecosystem around “video production, digital animations, augmented reality, gaming, and media editing.”
b. Virtual networks will exert a considerable “influence on culture and collaboration.”
5. Superstructure organizations — “new forms of production and value creation.”
a. “Unprecedented reorganization of how we produce and create value.” Reach scale previously attainable only by very large organizations.”
b. “New generation of organizational concepts and skills through “game design, neuroscience, and happiness psychology.”
6. Globally connected world — “diversity and adaptability at the center of organizational operations.”
a. The “US and Europe no longer hold a monopoly on job creation, innovation, and political power.”
b. “Innovation and design have been the prerogative of R&D in developed countries.”
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM POST COVID-19 PREDICTIONS
In March 2020, the World Economic Forum predicted that COVID-19 could have “ a lasting impact on the trajectory of learning innovation and digitization” that includes:
1. Interactive apps and online (asynchronous) learning tools for online learning “even for subjects such as physical education.”
2. “Public-private educational partnerships could grow in importance.” In some countries, consortiums have provided educational “videos, book chapters, assessment tools, and counseling for free.”
3. Internet access will ensure quality education. A potential gap in education quality will widen unless “access costs decrease for less affluent families.”
The US Census estimated in July 2019 that 91.9% of all Ventura County households have a computer, and 86.8% have a broadband internet subscription. Acceptable and scalable price points and access plans should increase the number of households with broadband access.
VENTURA COUNTY STEM DOMAIN
Ventura County leverages the P-20 Council to develop a “workforce for the 21st Century global economy” focuses on three areas, namely: 1) 4-year post-secondary education; 2) 2-year community colleges for job training and mid-career transition; and 3) “greater focus on STEM disciplines” (science, technology, engineering and mathematics).
Through the VC STEM Network, the P-20 Regional Council partners with CSUCI to deliver STEM programs to students from pre-K through post-graduate studies. Additionally, from 2017–2018, AmeriCorps in support of the P-20 Council and US2020, hired a VC STEM Coordinator to help bring STEM programs to “underrepresented communities in Ventura County.”
Ventura County Office of Education (VCOE). Every year, the VCOE holds a Science Fair and STEM competition that is staffed by approximately 200 volunteers from the STEM industry. “Each year…nearly 600 students earn the right to compete at the VC Science Fair.” The winners (around 50 per year) “are invited to the State Science Fair.”
Ventura County Community College District (VCCCD). Of the 15 career pathways at VCCCD, four (4) industries cover topics that fall under the STEM domain, namely: 1) Engineering and Design, 2) Health Science and Medical Technology, 3) Information Technology, and 4) Manufacturing and Product Development. In March 2018, VCCCD partnered with Naval Base of Ventura County, Naval Facilities Engineering and Expeditionary Warfare Center (NAVFAC EXWC) to “strengthen skills training and local employment outcomes in the STEM fields.” On December 12, 2017, EXWC, which employs more than 1,100 scientists and engineering professionals, was “authorized as the newest Science and Technology Reinvention Laboratory.”
California Lutheran University. As part of its long-term strategy to increase interest in STEM, California Lutheran University (CLU) offers a free, three-week STEM summer bridge program (STEM Academy) to Freshmen and Transfer Students. The university has extended its offer to students who are Sophomores or Juniors in high school, to Seniors who will attend a Community College, and to students who are currently enrolled at a Community College and are not yet transferring.
California State University Channel Islands (CSUCI). In 2018, California State University Channel Islands (CSUCI)rolled out its Mechatronics engineer major which is a “multidisciplinary field of science that inclu des a combination of mechanical engineering, electronics, computer engineering, telecommunications engineering, and systems engineering.” In addition, the university’s STEM program has received grants from The Amgen Foundation and Pentair. CSUCI’s Engineering Innovation Summer Bridge Program provides “four weeks of university-level physics and engineering classes to a group of 12th graders from Hueneme High School.” As part of the same program, 11th graders at Hueneme High School may attend pre-engineering classes at Oxnard College.
STEMbassadors. Since 2017, the student-managed, Ventura-based 501c(3), have partnered with industry to develop mobile STEM fabrication equipment, STEM curriculum, free teacher training, and donated “Spark Cart” equipment to “drive advancement of applied STEM in the K-12 education system.”
Californians for Energy Independence (CEI). In the fall of 2016, CEI has delivered free STEM workshops “conducted by energy industry employees form Aera Energy and California Resources Corporation”, and local partners.
Fathomwerx. Through the efforts of the Economic Development Collaborative, in November 2019, the 60,000 square foot Fathomwerx lab in NBVC Port Hueneme began operations to bring “rapid innovation, disruption and audacious projects.”
THE STEM WORKFORCE
National-level STEM workforce concerns. In its July 2017 analysis, the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) predicts that “by 2025, 60% of the US’s pharmaceutical industry jobs could be vacant, the result of a lack of effective education policies coupled with growing competition from other countries.” There is a “real danger the country’s pharmaceutical industry could fall behind its competitors if nothing changes”, according to Anne Pritchett, vice president of policy and research at PhRMA. “If we get to a point where policies and the STEM workforce in another country outweigh what we have in the US, there’s a real fear that we will lose our (R&D) competitive edge.” In 2016, “China had 4.7M recent STEM graduates, compared to just 568,000 in the US.”
“If we get to a point where policies and the STEM workforce in another country outweigh what we have in the US, there’s a real fear that we will lose our (R&D) competitive edge.”
Pritchett added that “states aren’t just competing with one another to attract and grow their pharmaceutical presence, but they are competing with these other countries, such as China, where 40% of graduates finished a degree in STEM in 2013.” In its February 2019 report, the National Center for Education Statistics pointed out that “of the 1.8M bachelor’s degrees awarded in 2015–2016, about 331,000 (18 percent) were in STEM fields. It’s important to note that women were awarded a higher percentage of 4-year degrees (58 vs 42 percent male); however, in the STEM fields “a lower percentage were awarded to females than to males (36 vs. 64% male).”
Is there really a STEM skill gap? In December 2017, Roberta Rincon, PhD, Manager of Research at the Society of Women Engineers (SWE) highlighted that the statistics “ignores the fact that certain STEM disciplines are higher in demand than others, and shortages only exist in a handful of STEM fields.” Rincon added that “by generalizing the STEM shortage, we are misleading future graduates with promises of lucrative job prospects that don’t exist for most STEM graduates.”
“by generalizing the STEM shortage, we are misleading future graduates with promises of lucrative job prospects that don’t exist for most STEM graduates.”
How federal government skews its own data. Rincon added that “if an engineering graduate…is teaching in an engineering college, or an engineering manager, or uses her engineering knowledge in sales”, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the US Census Bureau “do not categorize him/her as a STEM worker.”
Oversupply in PhDs. In its May 2015 Monthly Labor Review, the BLS reported that “in the academic job market, there is no noticeable shortage in any discipline.”
in the academic job market, there is no noticeable shortage in any discipline.”
Signs point out that there is an “oversupply of PhD’s vying for tenure-track faculty positions.” Due to citizenship requirement, certain disciplines have a shortage in the “government and government-related job sector.” However, in the private sector, “software developers, petroleum engineers, data scientists, and those in skilled trades are in high demand.”
However, in the private sector, “software developers, petroleum engineers, data scientists, and those in skilled trades are in high demand.”
According to the BLS chart above, only computer science job openings matched with the number of 2015–16 graduates, while Life Sciences, Engineering, Physical Sciences, and Mathematical Sciences produced more graduates than available positions.
VENTURA COUNTY’S BIOPHARMA CLUSTER TODAY
Biopharma Cluster. The 2019 California Life Sciences Industry Report lists over 3,400 life sciences companies within California that employ 311,000 Californians and bring in revenues over $178B. According to the BioPharmGuy website, which maintains a directory of Southern California biopharma companies, there are over 930 (27.3% of 3,400) biopharma companies in Southern California. There are 13 biopharma companies in the following cities, namely:
Camarillo:
1) Askgene Pharma — Biotechonology, biosuperior molecules
2) Integrity Bio/LyoTipInvitrogfen — Formulation of vaccines, antibodies
3) Kinamed — Implantables for orthopedics, cardiothoracic, and neurosugery
4) PBS Biotech — Bioreactors
5) REMD Birtherapeutics — Bio-medicines to treat cancer, diabetes and other diseases.
Simi Valley:
1) GlycoMinds International — Non-invasive solutions to gastrointestinal disease detection
Thousand Oaks:
1) ADRx — Novel treatments for amyloid diseases
2) Amgen — Innovative medicines on six therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, oncology, bone health, neuroscience, nephrology and inflammation)
3) Atara Biotherapeutics — Cancer, autoimmune, and viral diseases
4) Dyve Biosciences — Leverages skin as a portal for systemic delivery
5) Excelse Bio- Injectable biotechnology
6) LungLifeAI — Molecular analysis of cancer biomarkers in blood
7) Thousand Oaks Biopharmaceuticals — Cell line development, biologic manufacturing, bioanalytical services, culture media, and fill and finish
Biopharma job losses. According the 2019 County of Ventura Economic Vitality Strategic Plan, the county’s Biopharmaceutical industry, a highly-saturated traded, export-based cluster rated at an 8.45 location quotient (2015), lost a total of 1,274 jobs between 2010–2015. The location quotient calculation means that the biopharma industry is a vital component to Ventura and employs 8.5 times more people in the STEM domain compared to a county of similar size.
In November 2019, the VC Star reported that Amgen planned to layoff 172 field-based employees throughout the country. However, in its letter to the California Employment Development Department, some of the employees received offers within the company and that all impacted employees were given the opportunity to “apply for other Amgen posted positions.” In 2017, “Amgen reassigned, relocated or laid off nearly 500 employees from its Thousand Oaks headquarters as part of plans to open a new facility in Tampa, Florida.”
In 2014, the Pacific Coast Business Times reported that Amgen “cut staff at its Conejo Valley headquarters…as part of a company-wide plan to eliminate between 2,400 and 2,900 jobs.” The report stated that Amgen would also “shutter facilities in Colorado and Washington.” Amgen’s “gaze has shifted abroad with the opening of a research facility in China and the purchase of a major drug distribution firm in Turkey.” To stay ahead of “an increasingly competitive global market”, Amgen cut 1,500 Ventura County jobs since 2006.
Causes. Biopharma job losses are attributable to 1) streamlining which includes reallocating local production facilities and personnel to other parts of the country, 2) moving production facilities to foreign locations, 3) losing proprietary right of patents, and 4) reacting to new entrants (new biosimilars). As recent as November 2019, Amgen reported that its “top line has suffered from knockoff competition.” Biopharma Dive highlighted in February 2019 that “companies are shifting around resources to build capabilities around technologies enjoying rapid growth, such as biologics or cell and gene therapy.”
WIN THE RIVALRY — PORTER’S FIVE FORCES
In his book “Competitive Strategy”, Michael Porter identified five forces that “play a part in shaping every market and industry” namely: 1) New Entrants, 2) Suppliers, 3) Buyers, 4) Substitutes, and 5) Rivalry. The “competitive influences” are likely to shape corporate or industry actions. As a “staple for business classes”, the framework has “blind spots.” The first drawback is that it is “backward looking.” Secondly, companies have the “tendency to analyze an individual company, versus a broad industry.”
Rivalry: Substitutes versus New Entrants
Within the next few years, Ventura County’s STEM learning programs will have produced a capable workforce made up of professionals and technicians. If the number of local STEM-centric companies do not increase, STEM graduates will be forced to seek employment and opportunities elsewhere in California or in other areas of the country. Therefore, a viable strategic goal would also include a plan to increase the number of locally-grown STEM companies that are headquartered in Ventura County.
13 companies. Of the 13 companies in Ventura County, only one develops implantable devices. Steering start-ups to focus on the medical device sector that has an annual average salary of $103,058, would add value to the regional economy. In California, the 311,266 Life Sciences jobs help create “647,000 jobs of indirect and induced employment” bringing the total of direct, indirect and induced jobs to 958,000.
Win by making substitute locations less attractive for homegrown companies. To win this rivalry, Ventura County must demonstrate its value over other locations to local entrepreneurs who are planning to relocate to other areas. A collaborative effort should highlight the strong relationship and access to the defense industry, the vigorous education platform, and the financial advantages of a strong local footprint that can cast a long shadow on the global economy.
Win by making Ventura County less attractive for New Entrants. New entrants will disrupt the ecosystem and could potentially reduce the viability of existing companies, or discourage local entrepreneurs. If a new entrant does not align with the overall strategic STEM plan, government should explore ways to help the company find more suitable locations.
Rivalry: Suppliers versus Buyers
The long-term sustainability of the STEM industry in Ventura County also depends on winning the rivalry between Suppliers and Buyers. In this context, the Suppliers consist of the STEM-educated labor pool who supply their labor to the STEM industry cluster, and the Buyers consist of the companies in the STEM industry. An increase in both the Labor Supply (STEM Professionals) and Buyers of Labor (STEM companies) would help reduce ensure production and enhance competitiveness.
Win by increasing the number of Suppliers (STEM professionals) in Ventura County. By increasing the number of STEM professionals, the local labor pool will keep pace with expansionary actions of STEM industry. This is essential to maintain industry-wide agility, and for employees to transfer their skills locally without uprooting families and social networks.
a. Increase enrollment with Elderly Lifelong Learners Learners. The predicted decline in traditional college-age enrollment in both the public and private (not Ivy League) colleges will be magnified by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, a growing population that is nearing the age of 65, will have an increased need to learn new skills. The education industry can stay ahead of the “lifelong learning” trend by modifying existing curriculum that take into consideration the unique needs of adult learners.As shown on page 7, the post-2008 recession increase in undergraduate enrollment (after the 18-month lag) was due largely to older adults returning to college. Additionally, older learners have a higher degree completion rate than traditional college-age learners.
b. Increase STEM enrollment through military partners. An essential part of the defense industry battle rhythm is the perpetual improvement evolution. Servicemembers, veterans, and retirees already possess an appreciation for advanced technology. Multiple programs should be used to attract this segment into the STEM industry.
c. Establish STEM clubs inside military installations. Servicemembers are socialized to prioritize the unit, organization, and team. To increase the interest in STEM, the education industry could partner with NBVC and Fathomwerx to create STEM clubs. The ideas can then be showcased during Fathomwerx’s competitions and the viable concepts funneled for VC investment.
Win by increasing the quantity and types of STEM companies. By growing the quantity and types of STEM companies within Ventura County, contractions (in sales and employment) in other STEM sub-sectors such as Telecommunications and Internet, Life Sciences, Computer and Peripheral Manufacturing, Aerospace, and Electronic Manufacturing can be easily absorbed by other companies in the area which will reduce delays in recruitment and lessen the impact on the production cadence. Listed below are two ways to approach STEM cluster growth in Ventura County.
a. Increase the number of companies in just the biopharma cluster. This limited approach would increase the uniqueness of the biopharma industry in Ventura County. However, regional or global disruptions could severely affect a single-scoped approach. Severe global disruptions would hinder the agility of the local STEM ecosystem.
b. Increase the number and types of STEM-centric companies. The STEM sector includes Telecommunications and Internet, Life Sciences, Computer and Peripheral Manufacturing, Aerospace, and Electronic Manufacturing. A broader approach that invites local entrepreneurs to fill the void of STEM specializations in the County would ensure that the effects of global crises are isolated within the certain sub-sectors. During an economic crisis, the reallocation of the labor pool to other companies within the Ventura County STEM ecosystem would be quicker, less resource intensive, and ensures that the industry stays ahead of the business cycle.
OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS
Fathomwerx and the Seabees. There are thousands of sailors and federal employees in both Point Mugu and Port Hueneme with innovative ideas. Port Hueneme is home to one of the largest Active Duty and Reserve Seabee units in the country. The Seabees are experts at all types of construction (earth moving equipment, concrete, bridge construction, airfield construction and repair, port assessments, underwater construction, building construction, carpentry, utilities, electrical, locksmith trades, and surveying). The Seabees have an innate interest to innovate, especially in battlefield construction and underwater construction techniques.
Fathomwerx could broaden influence by hosting a Construction Innovation Fair open to Active Duty, Retired, or Seabee veterans. This would capture ideas and spur intrinsic innovation for further development down the VC pipeline.
Training Within Industry (TWI) and VCCCD. To capitalize on the government’s recent adaption of TWI methodologies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, VCCCD could partner with NBVC to offer certificate programs that can produce a qualified labor pool with the agility to keep pace with economic changes post COVID-19.
Tuition Assistance, GI Bill, STEM and the Agriculture Industry. Active Duty personnel are authorized Tuition Assistance for post-secondary education. Recruiting servicemembers into the STEM domain or steering them towards an agriculture while on active duty would add to the number of college enrollments.
Additionally, the GI Bill authorizes certification programs in agriculture. In conjunction with Ventura County’s agriculture industry, the education domain could capitalize on the allocated funds to certify veterans and active duty in some form of agriculture specialty.
CONCLUSION
Due to its growing STEM footprint, the County of Ventura must do the following, namely: (1) increase the number of STEM graduates today that would serve as expansion of county STEM industry; (2) attract STEM/Bio-pharma companies into the region that complement Ventura’s existing capabilities; and (3) incentivize its graduates to work within the Ventura STEM ecosystem, and not relocate to other locations such as San Diego or Silicon Valley, to reduce the requirement to build additional housing.
Copyright Leonard Casiple 2023. All rights reserved.
About the author: Leo Casiple is a first-generation American who grew up in Southern Philippines under martial law. He spent much of his 21-year career in the US Army as a Green Beret.
Leo is currently a doctoral student at Northeastern University’s Doctor of Law and Policy program (2022–2025 Cohort). He earned his education from California Lutheran University (MPPA), ASU Thunderbird School of Global Management (MBA in Global Management), Excelsior University (BS in Liberal Arts, Ethnic and Area Studies), Academy of Competitive Intelligence (Master of Competitive Intelligence™), Defense Language Institute and Foreign Language Center (18-month Arabic Language Course), and the US Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School (Special Forces Qualification Course and Psychological Operations Specialist Course).
For more information about the author, click here: Leo’s LinkedIn Profile
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